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New Release - April 10, 2001

Borsuk's National Retail Federation speech is now available. The January presentation began with a definition of the omni-channel customer doing her comparison shopping on a Web-enabled cell phone while walking through the store with a catalog. Borsuk emphasized the example to illustrate the need for merchants to meet customers' expectations wherever and whenever it is convenient for them. He described the omni-channel strategy including the use of new store site location criteria, applying WiredLease(sm) negotiation tactics and the need for a PresenceAgreement(sm). While the PresenceAgreement(sm) is still in early development, retailers must become conversant with intellectual property and telecommunications law and their applicability to the traditional space lease. Borsuk gave examples of how developers supplying broadband, software applications and Web hosting could create tenant liability. He also told the lease negotiators and financial analysts in the audience that their new best friend was the IT person.


Holiday 2000 & Beyond - What the numbers mean.

Women Online - SCT spikes Borsuk's Letter to Editor.

Feedback from NRTA & NRF - People are connecting the dots.

Possible Retailer Strategies - Renegotiate options and lease bankruptcy.

The Price of Acceptance - Prof uses INFOTECH SCAN(sm) for location analysis.

Multi-Channel Retailing - Is the Web driving in-store sales or not?

Hegelian Hybrid - Is Amazon becoming a customer service firm?

Corporate Governance - Will activist nail retailers for not leveraging cybersapce?

Upcoming Talk - ARES 2001 & NRTA.

Paris Rental - Summer/Fall availability.

Holiday 2000 & Beyond - What the numbers mean.

Holiday merchandise sales online during November - December roughly doubled to reach 4.3% ($8.3 bn / $195 bn) of General Merchandise, Apparel and Furniture (GAF) sales according to the NRF/Forrester monthly purchasing survey. Overall, online merchandise purchases hit 3.5% of total 2000 GAF sales ($29 bn / $821 bn). Not bad considering they were about one percent of GAF sales in 1999.

Furthermore, the PCData / Goldman Sachs Weekly Online Holiday Shopping Survey disclosed merchandise sales for the last nine weeks of the year more than doubled to $8.9 bn from $4.2 bn the year before.

The weekly PCData / Goldman Sachs survey also disclosed buying ramped up in October much earlier than the comparable period in 1999, and a higher level of purchasing continued through year-end.

Furthermore, online buying continues strong in 2001 despite the massacre. In January and February merchandise sales were $3.8 bn, up seven percent over the comparable period last year.

Signaling online buying's mainstream acceptance was the survey's further finding that almost twenty million households purchased during the holidays. Supporting the finding was the Boston Consulting Group/Harris Interactive report showing fifty-one million individuals purchased during the holidays. A February PewInteractive ( analysis pegged the number at fifty-four million (18+) holiday purchasers. This represented a rapid increase in buyers from the May - June survey. In six months online buyers increased by fourteen million, an astounding thirty-five percent!

Another nugget Pew offered was that African-Americans and Hispanics are rapidly increasing their presence online. Among adults, forty-three percent of Blacks and forty-seven percent of Hispanics are online. The comparable number for Whites is fifty-seven percent. More importantly, of those online, forty-eight percent of African-Americans, forty-one percent of Hispanics and fifty-two percent of Whites made a purchase during the holidays.

Virtual foot traffic during the holiday season also underscores the rapid growth in a new shopping habit. The Nielsen/NetRatings survey from 1999 found Amazon & Toys-R-Us received a total of sixty-one million unique visits, but that doubled to one hundred and twenty-four million during the survey period from November 5 to December 24. Similarly, traditional retailers also enjoyed significantly higher holiday traffic. J.C. Penney received more than fourteen million visitors increasing from 6 million a year earlier. Even newcomer Best Buy received over twelve million hits during the period. In addition, Media Metrix found comparison shopping sites (MySimon, DealTime and BizRate) were heavily used during the season, receiving almost a million visitors a day.

In sum, Holiday 2000 was an unqualified success with more people online buying than ever before. The early months of 2001 portend continued momentum.

NOTE: The NRF/Forrester survey data was revised to reflect "net" merchandise sales by excluding food and beverages, all travel related services and the "other" categories. Similarly, the PCData / Goldman Sachs numbers also excluded travel related purchases for comparison purposes.

Women Online - SCT spikes Borsuk's Letter to Editor.

Last December Borsuk challenged a Shopping Centers Today article about gender buying patterns.* SCT invited him to submit a comment for publication but later declined to print it. Borsuk sought to alert readers that women would become the dominant online purchasers by 2002. Text of letter below.**

While Borsuk's analysis was significantly at odds with the SCT article, independent surveys confirmed his view. For example, the NPD e-Visory holiday report found more than half the purchasers were women, the NFO Online Retail Monitor survey pegged them at fifty-eight percent, and the BizRate consumer survey noted fifty-five percent of holiday buyers were woman. Earlier, Greenfield Online found women were the majority of buyers during the second and third calendar quarters of 2000.

In a Business Week interview on January 4*** Paco Underhill ("Why We Buy") offered some trenchant observations about women buying online along with a few other choice comments. ***(

First, technology does not lead retail but follows it. Second, women need to see the computer as an appliance, not as a technology challenge. The appliance is there to make their lives more meaningful and effective. Third, he noted his clients leveraging the online channel seek to "…pay less money to their landlords."

The last point takes on added significance based on the feedback from the NRTA and NRF talks. See discussion below.

**SUBJECT:    "E-tail study: Male shoppers outnumber female" -- Oh really!
        (December 2000, Page 74)

Dear Editor:

The E-tail article in the December issue failed to inform readers that women have reached parity with men as buyers online. Furthermore, the article did not provide retail developers and property owners with an understanding of why women are flocking to cyberspace.

It was only a few years ago that the retail real estate community thought women would not buy anything online. Most assumed technological complexity, the experiential nature of shopping and credit card security concerns would keep women off the Web. In addition, few could foresee online shopping giving time back for family, career and leisure.

The technological complexity rationalization was nothing more than a reflection of the community's deep-seated technophobia. Obviously, if most men could not use the technology, how could women become proficient?

The experiential rationale was patently absurd. Few stopped to consider how easy it was to purchase numerous items online. Women faced few risks when purchasing trusted brands, restocking items and numerous self-service products. In many instances, shopping is really drudgery with little social interaction. When seen in this way, online buying represents an irresistible value proposition, giving women a strong incentive to migrate purchases online.

The fear of credit card fraud remains. However, the prevalence of familiar terrestrial merchants reduces the concern.

Today, the old views about women online seem laughable. The survey data shows how quickly they moved online and reached parity with men as users and buyers. The next phase moves them to being the dominant purchasers by 2002. They will attain majority status because trusted retailers like Target, Wal-Mart, Kmart (, Sears and J.C. Penney are making it comfortable, convenient and enjoyable to shop online.

The non-geocentric shopping habit developing among wired women presages a fundamental change in the way many retailers do business. In this brave new world, are we ready for the change?

Sincerely yours,

Feedback from NRTA & NRF - People are connecting the dots.

Borsuk asked the audience at the National Retail Tenants Association and National Retail Federation presentations to fill out a short survey on how online buying was impacting their business and leasing strategy. One interesting observation was the response rate from the NRTA audience was higher. This may reflect that NRTA is an organization focused on real estate leasing and operational issues.

The respondents represented retailers having less than one hundred to over two thousand stores, with more than seventy-five percent of the locations leased. Most but not all were publicly traded companies.

The majority of respondents checked the "Can't tell yet" when asked whether online buying was impacting in-store sales. Although, the comment "we may be in denial!" may be closer to the truth.

The next question asked whether senior management was considering how online buying could impact new store growth, the number of locations needed to serve a trade area, and store size. All replies noted the issue was under active consideration.

Another question asked whether the potential of online buying cannibalizing in-store sales was a factor for making site location decisions. Some replies said it was of "no" concern but most thought it was of "some" concern. The survey did not ask whether respondents were in the hard lines or soft lines business.

The last question asked how important Wall Street's opinion was about store expansion plans and leasing strategy. The vast majority said it was of importance.

Last December's Shopping Center World published a more extensive survey done with owners, investors, lenders and property managers. When senior managers were asked whether e-commerce would have an impact on sales over the next twenty-four months, thirty percent of the lenders and investors believed it would while only seventeen percent of the owners and property managers thought there would be a negative impact.

Respondents were asked to rank merchandise categories to be affected. Seventy percent thought bookstores would be hit. Next, fifty-seven percent said computer hardware and software would suffer. Consumer electronics and office supplies came in at forty-one percent each. Finally, sixteen percent thought apparel retailers would be affected. Apparel is a sleeper category. Most people thought it would not do well online despite great success with catalogs. However, online apparel sales in 2000 totaled $2.8 bn according to the NRF/Forrester survey and Forrester projects them to reach $8.9 bn in 2002.

Possible Retailer Strategies - Renegotiate options and lease bankruptcy.

A particularly interesting session at the NRTA convention was on renegotiating options. Using this tactic at the end of the term could be the wave of the future for sales channel reformation. (

The Office Depot and Office Max conference calls in January gave an insight into using this tactic. First, there were the announcements of significant store closings (ODP +/- 67 stores and OMX +/- 50 stores). Office Depot blamed poor sales results on bad real estate decisions. Second, ODP let it be known hundreds of leases were coming up for renewal over the next several years, and each location's contribution to profitability would face tougher scrutiny. The office supply retailers also said new stores would have a smaller footprint (20,000 sf) with OfficeMax downsizing by 15% (23,500 sf) and Office Depot slimming down by 27% (27,500 sf).

The conference calls contained an implicit message that traditional location heuristics were producing under-performing stores. The Office Depot press release quoted the CEO as saying they were going to apply a "…vigorous analytical criteria to new site selection…" However, there was no explanation why the analytics were failing. Could it be the growing success of the online channel is exerting pressure to rethink site selection methodology and store size?

On the other hand, Staples (SPLS) is pursuing a dual strategy of continued aggressive store growth coupled with an evolving omni-channel strategy. The recent decision to consolidate the catalog and online channels suggests the latter point. Staples reported omni-channel customers bought 4.5 times more than store-only customers, clearly demonstrating that the office supply retailers are at the forefront of profitably leveraging the online sales channel.

Office Depot reported eight percent of sales came from the online channel. Given Office Depot's dexterity with the online channel, they could double the online share of total sales within two to three years while hundreds of leases roll over. This would give them the opportunity to close redundant locations within trade areas, convert some stores to showrooms having limited inventory and provide incentives for their more profitable customers to shop online. The net result could be a lot of vacant space.

More problematic is the Staples' expansion plan. The April 16 issue of Forbes wondered about the wisdom of rolling out 160 new stores in 2001. The article noted comparable store sales were flat, new stores were taking longer to reach profitability, the competitors were retrenching and saturating a market with stores threatened to cannibalize sales. (

A shift in customer channel preference could also derail the strategy of growing out of decelerating store sales. During an economic slowdown office supply stores may be vulnerable to customers moving online for two reasons: convenience and price. It is convenient to order office supplies online, although some items remain only available in the store. In addition, online prices keep getting better with each new round of promotional discounts. Free shipping coupled with valuable discounts is a compelling reason to avoid wasting gasoline and time to roam the aisles and drag the merchandise back.

Forrester Research's February report on multi-channel retailing, Symphonic Retail, paralleled the office supply stores' decision to close stores and improve site selection by advocating that retailers fully integrate their channel strengths by customer preference, price sensitivity and merchandise attributes. But the analysis contained a real shocker. The report stated:

"Store closing will be signs of success. Traditionally a red flag foreshadowing bankruptcy court, store closing for price- and experience-orientated retailers will become as popular with the investment community as site launch announcements were in 1998. Price-driven retailers like Sam's Club will replace many stores with drive-thru windows at regional distribution centers, while experience-orientated retailers like Toy "R" Us will close off-mall stores and redirect resources to more heavily trafficked locations." (p. 15)

Given Forrester's reputation on Wall Street, this thought could percolate into the quarterly conference calls and brokerage reports.

Alternatively, another tool for sales channel reformation could be lease bankruptcy. The glut in movie screens and resulting need to restructure the movie-theater business offers a clue about how a retailer could dump leases to leverage the online sales channel. In bankruptcy, savvy retailers would keep the good ones and reject the rest at a reasonable cost.

In New York, Borsuk suggested this scenario in a meeting with retail company analysts. They probably thought he was suffering from too rapid a descent coming in from San Francisco. One concern is the impact on equity holders. However, to soften the blow, a retailer might create an entity to hold store leases and then place that entity into bankruptcy. This assumes leases could be transferred (assigned) to the entity without significant landlord opposition and ultimately the transaction approved by the court. A pretty wild idea but M&A guys, a.k.a Cybersurgeons, have the chutzpa to make it happen and are indifferent to screaming landlords and lenders.

The Price of Acceptance - Prof uses INFOTECH SCAN(sm) for location analysis.

The Fall 2000 issue of Real Estate Review (Vol. 30, No. 3) published an article by Professor Rabianski, the doyen of retail site analysis, discussing online buying's impact on store sales. The article, "Retail Demand Analysis and Internet Retailing", used a mall project as an illustration of why the orthodox analysis requires accounting for online transaction leakage. He cited Borsuk's "Online Buying Defies Site Selection Folklore" in last May's Shopping Center Business as a framework for analysis. (

Rabianski outlined a method for estimating sales migration within the traditional analysis used by lenders, appraisers and Wall Street analysts for evaluating development and acquisition deals. His article is an example of memetic theory in action.

Memetics describes how an idea, concept or belief spreads throughout a population. Professor Richard Dawkins coined the term in his 1976 book the "Selfish Gene." A meme, rhymes with dream, is akin to a virus moving from host to host. The metaphor "viral marketing" conveys the concept. Another way to think about the meme is embodied by the tipping point, an epidemiological term. The tipping point occurs when the idea encoded in the meme achieves acceptance among influential opinion makers.

While developers and investors may not immediately grasp how memes could impact their business, the Rabinanski article offers an insight. Lenders will not make funds available without an appraisal. Appraisers need a defensible methodology to support the lender's decision. The Rabinanski paper calls into question the assumptions underpinning the present valuation model.

Until very recently, there was little reliable data to test the Rabianski methodology. This is starting to change. Claritas is combining Simmons Market Research surveys to show the number of potential online shopping households by ZIP code and block group. The data set still does not contain a breakdown by merchandise category or amount spent. Despite the obvious weaknesses in the data, the traditional demographic and psychographics vendors are finally starting to respond to online buying for the benefit of retailers, developers and investors.

If appraisers and lenders embrace the Rabianski analysis, they will require developers to demonstrate that online buying does not significantly impact the tenants for the proposed project. Alternatively, the developer will have to change the tenant mix to conform to the lender's concerns. In the case of a refinance or a purchase, similar questions will arise, i.e., how does online buying impact the tenants and what strategy does the owner have to counter sales leakage?

However, there are other memes in competition with Rabianski's thesis. They include the belief of a slowdown in online channel investments by retailers, the ongoing confusion over whether multi-channel customers drive in-store sales (see below) and the inherent institutional fear of rapid change.

Real Estate Issues (Winter 2000/2001, pp. 54-60) provides a contra view. The author confidently predicts it will be at least another decade before online buying impacts retail property values. Using inductive reasoning based on unsubstantiated assertions the analysis blatantly ignores the facts.

"Elements of Change, Stability & Uncertainty in the Retail Real Estate Market" advances three factors likely to slow online buying. The first is the fifty-five and older population, less comfortable with technology, will not embrace online buying. The second reason relates to a growing wealth disparity. The last factor posits the difficulty in changing shopper behavior. Each reason in the abstract is plausible but contradicted by the facts.

The observation of an aging, semi-technophobic population disinclined to shop online ignores who buys. Those fifty-five and over spend considerably less on merchandise than other age groups.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor's Consumer Expenditure Survey for 1999 shows consumer units (households) headed by those fifty-five and older spent twenty-eight percent of total expenditures while those in the thirty-five to fifty-four year old range spent fifty percent of the total. In other words, merchandise buying power resides with the under fifty-five crowd. ICSC customer survey data for 1996-1997 corroborates the fact. In analyzing the shopper profile the report stated, "Per-visit expenditures increase with age, until the 55-64 bracket when there is a sharp decline in spending at mall stores." See ICSC Research Quarterly Fall 1998 (Vol. 5 Number 3).

The point about wealth disparity retarding online buying is a non sequitur. The crucial questions are whether the merchandise works online and the rate customers decide to transact online.'s millions of users demonstrates that lower income families are interested in cyberspace including buying online.

Finally, the author argues another barrier to online buying is the ingrained geocentric shopping habit. What he fails to discuss is how shoppers change their habits when presented with a compelling value proposition like discount clubs (COSTCO) and low price airfares (Southwest). There are over fifty million households online, and during the holidays twenty million purchased online. This is a significant change in habit. Thus, households have changed their buying habits in response to the online value proposition and are likely to approach forty million households purchasing online by the end of 2002.

It is too soon to tell whether meme theory will explain the market's stance on retail property values but the Rabianski article puts the issue in play. However, the market will note that recent survey data strongly support an impact. On April 3, Nielsen/NetRatings announced five cities (Portland, Seattle, San Francisco, Boston and San Diego) had reached a two-thirds online household penetration level.* A March Zogby poll found over seventy percent of adults had Internet access, up from sixteen percent in August 1997.** Also fifty-six percent of the online users had made a purchase. High household penetration and increased online buying can further spread the contagion. If Rabianski's ideas jump from the appraisal and lending literature to the pages of the WSJ and NYT, memetic theory could receive a boost.

Multi-Channel Retailing - Is the Web driving in-store sales or not?

Stores Magazine (February 2001, pp. 28-32) carried an exclusive survey on customer interaction with stores and Web sites. The survey of 565 frequent Internet users (18+) was conducted after Christmas. The research examined their fourth quarter online activities with twenty-three national retailers having Web sites.

The title "Websites Drive In-Store Holiday Sales" is misleading. While the study found online shoppers did frequent stores, it did not establish online shoppers were making a higher percentage of their purchases in the store after going online. Perhaps the most interesting question asked was, "What percentage of shoppers visited a retailer's website during the fourth quarter and made an on-line purchase?" The highest conversion of clicks to purchases was twenty-nine percent for Toys-R-Us and the lowest was three percent for Sam's Club. Best Buy came in at eighteen percent and Circuit City a modest eleven percent.

The study did not ask one critical question. How many of the customers were existing (potential cannibalization of in-store sales) or new to any channel (accretive to top line sales) when converting clicks to online purchases. Another holiday study gave an indication.

Greenfield Online and Cognitiative studied online purchases during the holidays and found seventy-seven percent of the consumers online made a purchase. In contrast, PewInteractive found only about fifty-two percent of the population bought online.

While the Greenfield Online/Cognitiative analysis is remarkable for finding a greater number of buyers, a much more important observation emerged from the research. The study found online purchases were cannibalizing catalog and store sales. Fifty percent of the catalog shoppers reported spending less by catalog while forty percent of the store shoppers said they bought less from stores during the holidays. The report urged retailers to anticipate channel swings especially as Web users move above fifty percent of households and the online experience advances. Is the Greenfield Online/Cognitiative view a fluke or based on better research? Perhaps, a refined 2001 NRF Multi-Channel study will help resolve the question.

Nevertheless, the cannibalization issue continues to vex retailers. For example, how much of Circuit City's online business is coming at the expense of store sales? During the January NRF session on multi-channel retailing, the Circuit City panelist said fifty percent of online customers choose to pick up items from the store. During the Q&A Borsuk asked what percentage of online customers were new buyers (accretive) versus existing customers. The speaker refused to answer the question. Knowing the breakdown would suggest the degree of store sales cannibalization.

For example, if fifty percent of the online buyers represented existing customers and half of them wanted their merchandise shipped, twenty-five percent of the former in-store sales would migrate to cyberspace. However, potentially offsetting the existing customers' shifting sales would be the percentage of new online buyers opting for store pick-up. In addition, the total amount spent by online existing customers wishing shipment versus new online customers wishing to go to the store for pick-up would influence cannibalization.

A clue about CE online delivery versus in-store pick-up emerged from a panel discussion at January's Consumer Electronics Show on "Shopping Made Simple: The Future of E-Commerce." The Best Buy representative said ten to twenty percent of online customers wished to pick up at the store.

Will Best Buy and Circuit City begin to experience what the office supply retailers may already see happening, i.e., overall sales expand due to the online channel while retarding individual store sales growth?

Hegelian Hybrid - Is Amazon becoming a customer service firm?

Last year's front-end/distribution deal with Toy-R-Us illustrates Amazon's underlying strength as a customer- and logistics- savvy firm. When viewed dispassionately, Amazon has a fully integrated online order taking and distribution system that replicates and is fundamentally superior to a catalog operation.

The advantage to mass merchandisers lacking a catalog channel, e.g., Wal-Mart, is they can leverage the logics and customer service expertise of Amazon with very little brand diminution at a known cost. Most customers would not find it strange to see "Wal-Mart Online powered by Amazon" as long as the merchandise mix and price points were sufficiently heterodox.

Amazon and similar premier pure-plays could in turn capture new revenue from order taking and fulfillment while focusing on those merchandise categories where they could maintain a competitive advantage.

What all this suggests is that the impetus to broaden the online channel will strengthen, not abate, by the formation of alliances and partnerships to meet customer online expectations. The failure of many pure-play retailers should not be seen as proof by the retail property community that the worst is over. Rather, a deadlier phase is beginning for retaining the loyalty of retail tenants.

Corporate Governance - Will activists nail retailers for not leveraging cybersapce?

First, came fears of environmental degradation. Next, purported sweatshop labor practices. Now, corporate governance advocates may turn their attention to retailers not leveraging the online sales channel.

Shareholder governance seeks to bring pressure on corporations who rarely feel pressure from their shareholders. In the eighties, legendary buccaneers like T. Boone Pickens extracted hundreds of millions in shareholder value from cowering boards. During the nineties, social activists sought to change corporate attitudes on environmental, labor and human rights issues.

Now, cutthroat capitalists and do-gooders may have a common cause: retailers slow to share the promise of cheaper merchandise online. In January the Progressive Policy Institute, an organization devoted to modernizing progressive politics for the information age, issued a report entitled "The Revenge of the Disintermediated: How the Middleman is Fighting E-Commerce and Hurting Consumers."
( and,1151,21169,00.html)

While the author excoriated efforts by car dealers, wine wholesalers and music distributors to prevent direct purchase, retailers came in for special mention. The report noted the threats by retailers against manufacturers who sought to sell direct. PPI's position is "There is no legitimate role for public policy to protect industries, firms, or entrepreneurs from competition."

Should the viewpoint gain currency, publicly traded retailers could find themselves defending their lackluster efforts to lower prices online at shareholder meetings and on conference calls. Alternatively, the activists could demand retailers drop efforts to prevent manufacturers from going direct.

Upcoming Talk - ARES 2001 & NRTA.

Borsuk will join a panel of academics and practitioners to discuss "Smart Buildings: How New Technologies are Changing Commercial Real Estate Structures" on Friday, April 20 at the annual American Real Estate Society conference to be held in Coeur d'Alene, Idaho. Included on the panel is Amy Young, "Broadband Princess" from Deutsche Banc Alex. Brown. Last year she and her REIT team authored a report entitled "Wired Real Estate: The Ultimate Portal." Amy views information technology incorporated into real estate as creating additional value. Borsuk will give the retail perspective on her thesis.

Borsuk is also presenting a talk entitled "Sliding Down the Bleeding Edge: Can Malls Hang onto Online Shoppers?" His presentation will expand upon the alignments of interest analysis to explore the conflicts, compromises and challenges facing developers in aligning their interests with retailers and shoppers.

NRTA invited Borsuk to address a roundtable on leasing strategy at their April meeting in Oakland.

Paris Rental - Summer/Fall availability.

The Berlioz flat is currently available for August and September.

The sunny condo on the fourth floor (walk-up) of a landmark building was completely renovated in 1999. The full floor unit has three bedrooms and two full baths and is located in the 9th arrondissement. The property is two blocks south from the Moulin Rouge (Montmartre) and convenient to all public transportation. To view the apartment go to Contact Liliane Travert-Borsuk
( for additional information.

Contact Information

Mark Borsuk ( ) is Managing Director of The Real Estate Transformation Group, a firm analyzing information technology's impact on space demand and providing strategies for property owners, developers, retailers and lenders. In addition to consulting, Mark is a retail leasing broker and real property attorney practicing in San Francisco. For further information contact Mark Borsuk at (415) 922-4740.

Continuing thanks to The Space Place ( for hosting RETG articles.

Copyright 2001. All Rights Reserved. Mark Borsuk.


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